Keir Starmer is doomed but don't celebrate - what follows will be madness

That's an astonishing thing to say given that Keir Starmer swept to power with a supposedly towering landslide just over a year ago. Yet the Westminster consensus is that he is finished. The only question is when. Starmer hasn't got what it takes, blundering from one disaster to another as Labour careers out of control on his watch.

He can't stop the boats, with his "one in, one out" migrant gimmick quickly grounded while half-hearted attempts at benefits reform fell apart after a huge rebellion from his own MPs.

The economy is sinking, and he no longer trusts his own chancellor. His latest cabinet reshuffle failed to remove the most damaging figure of all, Ed Miliband.

Starmer's vaunted Phase Two reboot instantly imploded after the resignations of Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson and now the PM's aide Paul Ovenden over offensive Diane Abbott emails.

Starmer may enjoy some respite as attention switches to Donald Trump today, but it won't last. Britain's troubles will come to a head at the Budget on November 26, when Rachel Reeves faces impossible choices.

She can't cut spending, can't borrow more and can't rewrite her fiscal rules. All that's left is tax, which will choke growth further.

Starmer can't play a strong hand well. Now he's holding a pathetically weak one.

Even if the PM staggers past Christmas, by-elections next spring could sink him. Leadership challenger Andy Burnham is circling and Labour MPs are restless.

Don't weep for Starmer, but don't cheer too loudly either. What follows will be worse.

If Burnham does somehow seize power, Britain could be in deeper trouble. He's more left-wing than Starmer, pushing nationalisation, higher spending and wealth taxes.

It's his only route to power, given that parliament is stacked with Labour MPs who thought victory meant a spending spree. Imagine their disappointment to discover the Treasury cupboards are bare.

The economy has flatlined, productivity is stuck and more tax hikes will only grind things down further.

Whoever challenges Starmer will have to pretend these constraints don't exist, promising giveaways and lavish schemes the country can't afford. With the exception of Wes Streeting, the likely contenders are all from Labour's spending wing.

Starmer was meant to be the sober, steady hand. Without him, Labour will run riot. That's when the real madness begins.

The only way a new Labour prime minister could justify a spending spree is by ignoring basic economics. Plenty on the Left are urging just that, insisting Britain should defy the bond market warnings and borrow even more.

The country will already raise £150billion this year, of which £105billion will be swallowed by debt interest alone.

Yet Labour's left flank argues we shouldn't worry about bankruptcy because the Bank of England can always print more money. Technically true, if we want to be the next Argentina.

Fantasy economics is spreading. Jeremy Corbyn is plotting a breakaway, the Greens promise the Earth at taxpayers' expense, and even Nigel Farage's Reform UK will struggle without big spending promises.

That leaves the Tories, but they're hardly a solution, having helped create this mess in the first place.

Starmer will fall, but what follows won't be stability. It will be chaos, drift and denial until Britain finally confronts hard truths about living within its means. There will be a lot of pain and suffering before we do.