Britain could face 'tight days' in winter energy supply

There could be "tight days" for energy supply over winter, Great Britain's energy system operator has warned.

These "tight days" are most likely to take place in early December or mid-January, early data from electricity firms and forecasters has suggested.

The National Energy System Operator (Neso) said on Thursday that electricity margins, which reflect the cushion of spare power supply available to meet customer needs, have risen to their strongest level since 2020.

But it added there could still be some "tighter periods" which could need support from the energy industry.

"We expect a sufficient operational surplus throughout winter, although there may still be tight days that require us to use our standard operating tools, including system notices," the report said.

The electricity grid operator and National Gas have published their latest energy outlook reports for this winter after prices ticked higher at the start of the month with a rise in the price cap.

Neso indicated that imported electricity supply from Europe could be used "when required" to help power homes and businesses.

It added that imports will be available when needed to help cover demand, supported by "adequate electricity supply across Europe".

Deborah Petterson, director of resilience and emergency management at Neso, said: "A resilient and reliable energy supply is fundamental to our way of life.

"At Neso we are looking at the upcoming winter and can report this year's winter outlook sets out the strongest electricity margins in six years.

"It is critical that we continue our work with the wider energy industry to prepare for the coming months to build on this foundation and maintain our world-leading track record of reliability."

Meanwhile, the latest analysis from National Gas indicated that Great Britain has enough gas supply capability to meet peak demand.

It indicated supply can meet demand, even "even accounting for unforeseen network outage scenarios".

The gas network operator said gas demand is expected to be 3% lower than last winter, easing pressure on supply. It said high-demand days are still expected but it stressed that it is "confident" the market will operate as needed.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: "As we head into winter, we remain confident in the resilience of our gas system and our ability to meet Britain's energy needs during periods of peak demand.

"The energy landscape is evolving, with a growing reliance on imports and the continued decline of UK continental shelf supplies. Meeting these challenges requires a co-ordinated, forward-looking approach, and we're working closely with Government, industry, and regulators to develop the right solutions that safeguard security of supply for the future."

Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: "While renewable generation is ever-growing, providing a record 55% electricity in summer this year [2], Britain's winter blackout risk is at its lowest since before covid.

"Not only this, but renewables are lowering wholesale electricity prices by up to a quarter, or £25/MWh [3] and more batteries are being brought online which can store up homegrown, green energy. It is clear that as the North Sea continues its inevitable decline more British renewables mean less dependence on foreign gas and volatile international markets, and greater energy independence.

"There are clearly two visions emerging for the future of energy in the UK; one of fracking sites peppered across counties up and down the country, the other of solar, wind and batteries facilities providing clean power."