If winter comes, can binge be far behind? Retailers stock up as demand seen continuing after festivity

Kolkata|Mumbai: Consumer goods retailers and kirana stores are stocking up on winter products in earnest after festive season forecasts proved gross underestimations in various categories and demand outstripped supplies in the wake of the goods and services tax (GST) rate cuts.

Primary sales, from companies to retailers, are up about 20% year-on-year in anticipation of a robust season ahead, aided by improved liquidity among traders and retailers after buoyant festive sales, said industry executives.

The outlook for the winter period is distinctly sunny, according to the likes of Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Emami, Dabur, Bajaj Electricals, V-Mart Retail and Lifestyle International. HUL, India's largest consumer goods maker, has ensured the trade is stocked up "pretty well" for winter, said its chief financial officer Ritesh Tiwari, adding, "It's all there now to sell."

Early Start
“If at all we have a decent winter, we should have a good outcome,” Tiwari of HUL said. The company has a large winter portfolio of creams, lotions, moisturisers and lip balms.

Emami vice chairman Mohan Goenka said winter stocking demand has seen a double-digit increase. “The season has started early. Sentiments are extremely positive, and growth would have been more if there were no five-day closure (of distributors) for Diwali. Winter has set in early in some places too,” he said. The company has a winter portfolio from creams to chyawanprash.

Trade channels have fully stocked winter products, said Sanjay Sachdeva, managing director of Bajaj Electricals, electrical water and room heater market leader. “Primaries have grown by around 20% and expectations of a strong season have led to higher stocking up,” he said.



Industry executives said consumer sentiment improved dramatically after the GST rate cuts, with effect from September 22, leading to a surge in sales in categories such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and apparel from Navratri till Diwali. Some product categories, such as electronic goods, saw record sales and stocks running out.

Winter is a crucial period for FMCG and apparel companies which have a portfolio of seasonal products. For some companies, it accounts for 15-25% of annual sales.

The India Meteorological Department last week forecast an increased likelihood of La Niña conditions during the upcoming months, which would mean a colder-than-average winter and heavier snowfall in the Himalayan belt.

Apparel retail chains are also looking forward to a growth in sales this winter. Lifestyle International chief executive Devarajan Iyer said indications are of a particularly harsh winter, and the leading departmental store chain doesn’t want to miss the opportunity of increased demand.

“We are projecting up to 20% growth and have placed orders accordingly. Stocking has already begun in the northern and eastern regions, where temperatures have started to drop and winters tend to be the most severe,” he said.

The prediction of a harsh winter has come as a relief for companies that had a poor April-June, with electronics and FMCG companies, in particular, impacted by weak demand for summer products. Electronics companies, for instance, reported a 40-50% year-on-year slide in sales of air-conditioners, a category which has seen weak demand for several quarters now.

Value fashion retail chain V-Mart Retail, too, has stocked up and planned its supplies with expectations of a double-digit sales growth this winter, said its chairman Lalit Agarwal. The winter will coincide with the extended wedding season ahead, another major consumption driver.